Funnel Volume by Fiscal Year

Definition

Total persons entering the funnel, total applicants, and the resulting application rate for each fiscal year. This is the foundational volume view — all other insight pages operate within this context.

Summary

FY2024 was the strongest measured year — highest applicant volume (5,602) and highest application rate (14.6%) in the reliable data window. FY2025’s funnel grew +45% in total persons while applicants slipped only 14%, compressing the rate to 8.6%. As the decomposition below shows, that compression was almost entirely a flood of non-converting international list records — not a decline in demand. FY2026 is a partial year with the application fee in effect.

Fiscal Year	Total Persons	Applicants	Application Rate	Notes
2021	20,159	14,746	73.1%	⚠ Pipeline artifact
2022	16,628	4,086	24.6%	⚠ Pipeline artifact
2023	40,564	3,927	9.7%
2024	38,277	5,602	14.6%
2025	55,748	4,813	8.6%
2026	41,683	2,816	6.8%	Partial year, app fee

Caution

FY2021 and FY2022 application rates are not reliable for comparison. The pipeline was in early implementation and likely only contained applicant records — not the full inquiry and prospect population — which artificially inflates the rate. FY2023 is the first year with a full-funnel picture.

Note

FY2026 is a partial year. The application fee introduced this cycle reduces total application volume by design — it is intended to surface higher-intent applicants, not to grow raw volume.

Why FY2025’s Rate Fell — It Was a Denominator Flood, Not a Demand Collapse

FY2025’s drop from 14.6% to 8.6% looks alarming, but it was not a decline in demand. Applicants fell only 14% (5,602 → 4,813), and the engaged funnel held nearly flat. What changed is the denominator: the funnel absorbed +17,471 people, almost all of them non-engaging list records.

Decomposing the FY2024 → FY2025 growth:

Segment	FY2024	FY2025	Growth	FY2025 Apply Rate
Engaged (has web touches)	22,096	22,204	+108 (flat)	~21%
In-platform (Meta / Zapier)	2,937	4,805	+1,868	0.7%
Other no-engagement (lists)	13,244	28,739	+15,495	0.5%

89% of the growth was a single category — cold list records that almost never convert. Traced through Slate source records, the dominant driver is one list: the EducationUSA Sub-Saharan Africa Virtual Fair GRAD names import of roughly 23,600 international graduate prospects, which converted at well under 1%. See funnel quality by intake source for the full breakdown.

A counterfactual makes the scale clear: had the no-engagement population stayed at its FY2024 size, FY2025’s application rate would have been 12.5%, not 8.6%. Roughly two-thirds of the apparent decline is this composition effect; the remaining ~2 points is a modest, real softening in the engaged funnel’s conversion (24.3% → 20.7%), consistent with organic search reach expanding to earlier-funnel audiences.

Key Insight

FY2024 is the high-water mark. FY2025’s lower rate is a measurement artifact, not a demand problem: the engaged funnel held (22,096 → 22,204 people, still producing 96% of applicants), but the CRM absorbed ~17,500 non-engaging list records — the bulk from a single ~23,600-name international virtual-fair import that converted below 1%. The real question FY2025 raises is not “why did demand fall” but “why are we acquiring so many names that never convert?”

Why This Is Important

Funnel volume by fiscal year is the baseline against which every other metric is interpreted. Application rate shifts mean different things depending on whether total volume is growing, shrinking, or holding steady — a rising application rate on a shrinking funnel is a different story than the same rate on a growing one.

This view also surfaces the compounding effect of structural changes like the application fee introduction in FY2026, which affects both the size of the funnel and who is in it.

Methodology

Persons are grouped by fiscal_year from persons_dashboard. Applicants are persons where applied = 'Yes'. Application rate is applicants divided by total persons in the cohort.

Note

FY2026 is a partial year and includes the application fee introduction — both factors affect volume and rate comparisons to prior years.

Query

SELECT
  fiscal_year,
  COUNT(*) AS total_persons,
  SUM(CASE WHEN applied = 'Yes' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS applicants,
  ROUND(
    SUM(CASE WHEN applied = 'Yes' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) * 1.0 / COUNT(*),
    3
  ) AS application_rate
FROM persons_dashboard
WHERE fiscal_year IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY fiscal_year
ORDER BY fiscal_year;